The Opinionated Bastard

OB —- I agree that Brookings estimates are just that —- estimates with large error bands because no one has any good intel, and I also agree that if you conceptualize counterinsurgency as similiar to a repetitive RICO takedown of a Mafia family where the first time does not matter, the second round of indictments shows some diminished op. capacity, but the real pay-off is the 6th or 7th round of indictments ten years from the start of the operation because the only people left to be “promoted” are the complete incompetent.

However even this modified attrition strategy only works when the target of the strategy can not replicate and regenerate its competency and sustainment measures faster than they lose those current capabilities. Reuters is reporting that US intel officials believe that Zarquawi’s organization is now self-sustaining and can recruit and train as fast or faster than they are being killed, captured or demotivated.

On the point of committment, let us back out the numbers and agree that the insurgency has taken very heavy losses that normally would break most conventional military forces without assigning numbers to that, and these losses are predictable, regular and recurring. Yet they are still fighting, increasing their technical capability, developping a political front, and exploiting the cleavage between the Sunni Arab population and the rest of the Iraqi population to maintain internal political, logistical, financial and military support. That to me indicates a resilent organization with plenty of committed members. Your interpretation may vary, but this rough description of fact of the past two years should be close enough for the two of us to agree upon.

I do think Al Qaeda is losing, because while support may be growing in regions that have not yet seen conflict, it is draining where people have seen what Al Qaeda does to society. The Al Majd broadcast of Ahmad Al-Shaye’s interview is starting to educate Saudi’s about the war in Iraq. If you watch the interview, its very interesting to see what Ahmad Al-Shaye’ thought the war was like, based on Al Qaeda’s propaganda.

As far as the IED numbers trending down, the military has finally uparmored enough Humvees that they no longer allow un-uparmored vehicles to leave bases. This has resulted in a drastic drop in US deaths, and a resultant increase in civilian deaths as terrorists retarget weaker opponents. The long-term side effect is more Iraqis lose friends and family members to these indescriminate attacks, and support to Al Qaeda wanes.