As always, reviewing the data from the Brookings Institution. I made the above graph to demonstrate some of the things I've been talking about in previous reports. (Note that “Car Crashes above is really 'non-hostile' deaths. About 90% of those are car crashes, so I named it that to put it in perspective.)
Now remember on that last month this is only through September 14th, still, that's halfway through the month.
IEDs have been between 30-40 deaths/month for most of the year.
Deaths from ”bullets“ (called other Hostile Fire in the Brookings report) have peaks when the military conducts operations.
So here's what I see: Everything but IED deaths and Bullet deaths have been trending down since May. This directly correlates with the soldiers reports that things have been settling down in Iraq. The bullet deaths are trending upwards, but that reflects the soldiers being more aggressive. IEDs have a slight trend upwards, but that also reflects that the insurgents have become much weaker. About the only thing they can do now is skulk around at night and plant bombs, they're too weak to mount much of a direct effort against the troops.
Now look at that last month, September. Its too early to say for sure given that we're halfway through the month, but look at the steep decline. Most of the numbers are zero! This almost seemed too good to be true, so I double checked on the Centcom site. Very few casualty reports.
Now of course, in the news we're reading about Al Queda killing all these innocent civilians, so it doesn't seem like Al Queda is ”losing“. But the reality is that Al Queda is flailing about. These last few attacks are doing nothing more then inflaming the populace against them. Attacking day laborers? Even fellow Sunnis thought that was beyond the pale, aiming at the poorest members of Iraq. There's going to be be a huge amount of blowback for Al Queda for that.
Here's the other interesting bit: There have been no US servicemen killed so far due to Tal Afar. That's partially because the Iraqis were leading the action on that one. No deaths and relatively few injuries means that Al Queda was exceptionally weak there; even the Iraqi military deaths are low so far this month for conducting such a big operation. As a result of that operation, 22 weapons caches have been found, which means fewer deaths going forward.
So I think these bombings may be one of Al Queda's last gasps. These attacks were ill-concieved, ill-planned and will have exactly the opposite effect. Much like the car bombing that purposefully killed children a couple of months ago, the populace is getting sick of these idiots and their tired philosophy of hate. One of the problems with suicide bombers from a military perspective is that they're like a gun with only one bullet. Even then, not all of these bombings are created equal: the bombs that have been going off have been less sophisticated and therefore less effective. The main reason the casualty count was so high with the first set of bombings was because that one guy killed so many day laborers.
Comments (12)
Al Qaeda is growing. I am an American and a member of Al Qaeda, I assure you that Al Qaeda is not loosing, it is growing greater every minute.
Posted by I AM THE BEAST SSSOTLOHIEFMJN | September 17, 2005 8:34 AM
Posted on September 17, 2005 08:34
given the results of bush incs actions i wonder if the above post is real.
in any event, al - queada is a phantom you are analyzing to keep your concsious mind safe from the fact that you know you have no idea what in the hell you are talking about…”gee, things are looking better in iraq AL QUEADA is losing..my chart says so…”…good god man, your fantasy world is killing americans in iraq and new orleans. wake up. please.
USA boys being blown to bits by pissed off iraqis is NOT a freaking stock chart!
ernie
Posted by ernie | September 18, 2005 8:32 PM
Posted on September 18, 2005 20:32
The beast guy is a 48 year old white loser troll guy. He’s been kicked off yahoo since.
As for it being a stock chart or not ernie, if the media had halfway decent war coverage, I wouldn’t have to peer at numbers to try to figure out what’s going on.
The afghans had an election last weekend, and no US soldiers were shot at. That’s a good thing, ernie.
Posted by Opinionated Bastard![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.opinionatedbastard.com/nav-commenters.gif)
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September 19, 2005 7:24 AM
Posted on September 19, 2005 07:24
The only thing I could think of to explain the numbers with a positive spin for the insurgents would be that they are preparing for a huge Ramadan offensive and thus attacks are lower now.
But I doubt it, especially as Mosul is virtually won. I agree that MSM reporting sucks.
Posted by Aaron | September 20, 2005 6:59 PM
Posted on September 20, 2005 18:59
I work in Baghdad. Both your charts and your analysis are very accurate. Bravo.
And this information is given to the news media. Exactly what it will take for them to print a truthful story about Afghanistan or Iraq, I’ll never know.
Posted by Who's ur Baghdaddy? | September 20, 2005 7:25 PM
Posted on September 20, 2005 19:25
Hahaha, Ernie and the rest of the retarded left are flailing around just like their allies, the terrorists. I like to watch a good flail.
Posted by Stankleberry | September 20, 2005 8:23 PM
Posted on September 20, 2005 20:23
Good job, OB. Your data matches what I have been informally graphing in pure casualty counts and types of deaths via Iraq Coalition Casualties website. And the location of the fighting moving farther west and north indicates more secure areas around Baghdad, Falluja, Mosul. I suspect Ramadi will be pacified soon, and Tal Afar has now entered the secure column. The trend is clearly in our favor. Even the wounded columns indicate our assaults and sweeps are having good success.
And Ernie and the Troll don’t have the analytical acumen or methodical ethic to examine US deaths without emotion and crying and wringing of hands. The terrorists are dying. The death throes may go on for some time, weaker and weaker. It may even take 5-10 yrs for them to completely die. But they will die nonetheless.
Well done.
Subsunk
Posted by Subsunk | September 20, 2005 8:37 PM
Posted on September 20, 2005 20:37
How funny, look at your allies OB. Rush limbaugh dittoheads, dumb as hell.
Why are you in Iraq? Think about it. Please.
Im an ally of the terrorists? Interesting. Bush and his true belieiving followers have created many more terrorists than any other force on earth, ever. Good job. and thanks for the deficits the tax and spend liberals were successful in alleviating. intl finance will balk soon.
“I work in Baghdad.” Uhh hello, but you work in the green zone. Walk outside that zone and see what happens to you.
Flailing? Hardly. Your ignorance is radicalizing america against right wing retardation. Thanks, your ignorant efforts trump mine by far. Keep up the good work. (see im glad you guys are in power, your incompetence is waking america up to imperialism….democrats are competent imperialists, you loons are destroying the systems structure..thanks for the entropy.)
The weak nad the stupid indeed. Nietzsche saw you idiots coming. The “last man” he called you, devoid of will, full of resentment, operating under orders and no meaning except to obey money. Good luck, you are failing.
Rita takes out Houston…”but global warming isnt real!” good luck.
you should apologize to your families now for being so damn weak and stupid…it really should hurt.
ernie
Posted by ernie | September 21, 2005 8:56 AM
Posted on September 21, 2005 08:56
by the way ob, you really think afghanistan is a democracy? really, because karzai controls kabul? really…why dont you tell that to the warlord opium barons who are pumping the West full of heroin. tell them about the rule of law OB.
ernie
Posted by ernie | September 21, 2005 8:59 AM
Posted on September 21, 2005 08:59
This is a fantastic post. One of the biggest omissions in the democrat media is that we are winning the war. Sad that the MSM has lost all credibility. Your chart here tells it all. Thanks.
Posted by Jim Hoft | September 21, 2005 7:37 PM
Posted on September 21, 2005 19:37
Well maybe I am a troll, but I still am on yahoo and I have a blog on yahoo 360 where you can see my rants and raves and curses you publisher of false information.
Posted by I AM THE BEAST, ET AL THE BEAST | February 8, 2007 6:07 PM
Posted on February 8, 2007 18:07
Well maybe I am a troll, but I still am on yahoo and I have a blog on yahoo 360 where you can see my rants and raves and curses you publisher of false information.
Posted by I AM THE BEAST, ET AL THE BEAST | February 8, 2007 6:07 PM
Posted on February 8, 2007 18:07