Oh no. Obama won and Edwards came in second. Now we'll have another few days of media nonsense "Clinton campaign in crisis, etc.". Iowa is a freaking media circus. Here's a hint: They're not writing "big boost for Obama from Iowa", they're writing about the Borg Queen.
You know what the end result will be? 16 Delegates for Obama, 14 for Edwards, 15 for Clinton. WikiPedia
That's right, where it counts, Clinton came in second! The percentages actually worked out to be 29.47% for Clinton vs. 30.00% for Edwards, so don't take the "Edwards came in second" thing too seriously.
Clinton still has most of the superdelegates locked up, according to WikiPedia again, she has 175, Obama has 75, and Edwards has 46.
Looking at the raw numbers on CNN, this does seem like the Iowans were impressed with Obama. He consistently did well across most of the sate.
But still, its the freaking Iowa caucuses. Winning it is practically the touch of doom!
Past non-incumbent "winners": Muskie. "None of the Above", Gephardt, Harkin, Kerry, and now Obama.
Past incumbent winners: Mondale, Clinton (lost the first time round, ran unopposed in '96), Gore.
I think its interesting that Clinton did worse in the more populous counties and better in the more rural counties. I think that's because the Borg Queen's strategy has always been to play to the center.
DesMoines Register has the best map. I couldn't find one scaled by population though.
Whatever. Here's the kiss of doom for Obama: "Obama campaign manager David Plouffe agreed that the outcome came down to "record turnout and lots of independents and first time voters."
Oh, you mean what all the other campaigns call "losers who never show up on election day? Those guys?" Kind of amazing they showed up for the caucus though, come to think of it. Who knows? Maybe Obama will be able to motivate the mythical 'first time voter'. You know, the ones that were going to push Kerry over the top?
Well, at least this nonsense will only last until Jan 8th, when people actually get to vote in New Hampshire.
Comments (2)
O-Bastard —- Nice to see that you are still sticking to the super delegates are everything theory and the Clintons dominate the entire party hypothesis. Right now looking at the Iowa entrance polls, Obama dominated Clinton with the Republican and Independent voters who caucsed with Democrats which weakens your theory that Clinton is successfully making a play for the center, and he was even with her on conservative and moderate caucus goers. Edwards won those two groups. Finally, Obama won ‘rural areas’ but Clinton won by a dominating margin medium towns (10K to 50K)
Next throw in the probable result of Obama winning New Hampshire by at least five points, and your theory gets a bit weaker —- remember superdelegates can and will uncommit if they are backing a loser.
Posted by fester | January 8, 2008 3:28 PM
Posted on January 8, 2008 15:28
Yeah, I could be wrong. To be honest, I haven’t really felt like tracking this election much, unless McCain picks up a lot. But who knows what Iowa means, it hasn’t exactly been a reliable predictor in the past. The whole caucus system is just too friggin’ weird.
For the local paper, I’m supposed to review all the candidates websites, we’ll see how that goes.
Posted by Pierce Wetter | January 8, 2008 3:41 PM
Posted on January 8, 2008 15:41