No doubt, somehow, despite the fact that an Arab nation had a real election somehow the results (when they come out sometime between now an January) will be spun by the glass-half-empty-crowd to be somehow bad for the US.
Here's my answer:
- A higher percentage of people voted in Iraq than in the US.
- It doesn't matter who they voted for, they voted. I might vote for a Democrat for Governor. I might not. Unless you know the details about each candidate, you have no idea what it means.
- Iraq is a religious nation. Expecting them to vote like say, Californians is just dumb. Expect them to vote like someone in the Bible Belt.
Here are my predictions:
- Some Religious candidates will do well. Iraq will end up being more conservative then California or New York, but not as conservative as 1876 Boston (used to be illegal in Massachusetts to have your business open on Sunday), perhaps slightly more conservative then Alabama, but not much.
- Some Secularists will do well. Not as many as we'd like, but enough to ensure that Iraq will be mostly secular.
- The Kurds will do well in the north.
- Some Shia will have voted for Sunni and vice versa. News Flash: Sometimes Blacks vote for Whites and vice versa. Voters are always smarter then the politicians think. Competence trumps incompetence every time in a secret ballot.
Here's my long term prediction for Iraq:
- Iraq will neither agree with the US 100% of the time, nor make us happy 100% of the time. That is, they'll be just like every other ally or enemy we've ever had.
- All in all, a free Iraq will be better for the world then a Saddam Iraq.
- Iraq will prove that people in a democratic society are always smarter more reasonable then their leaders.
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