From Patrick Ruffini:
I’m not saying I buy this entirely, but let me play Devil’s advocate. Even if he wins New Hampshire as he seems certain to, I’m not sure that Obama has much better than even odds for the nomination.
The key to this analysis lies in the Democratic calendar. From Wednesday morning until February 5th, the Democrats have only two delegate-awarding events: Nevada on January 19th and South Carolina on January 26th. Assume that Obama’s momentum hits its high water mark on Wednesday. He has to keep it up for 27 days under withering assault from the most ruthless political machine in Democratic history. And with an expected win in S.C., Obama can’t squeeze much more juice from the orange for the next four weeks.
Unlike New Hampshire, Obama simply can’t ride momentum from state-to-state-to-state for the next month. There are 11 days from the New Hampshire primary until the Nevada caucus. Of all the early states, Nevada has been the most Clinton-friendly (though there hasn’t been any polling since early December). Four days before, a full week of settling out from New Hampshire, will be the Las Vegas debate, which will be covered as yet another make-or-break moment. It will happen during a lull in their calendar, so it will leave a bigger mark than New Hampshire’s drive-by debates. And let’s remember that the debates (with one glaring exception) have been Clinton’s strong suit.
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