From the Wall Street Journal:
Both the Bush Administration and former President Jimmy Carter were quick to bless the results of last month’s Venezuelan recall vote, but it now looks like they were had. A statistical analysis by a pair of economists suggests that the random-sample “audit” results that the Americans trusted weren’t random at all.
Previously, I’ve written about voting machines and my frustrations with the critics of voting machines on insisting on a paper trail. I think the case in Venezuela illustrates too things:
Paper isn’t going to prove anything
Its important to get this right, because if we do, we can clean up elections worldwide.
Continue reading "Venezuela, Voting Machines, and Paper Trails" »
The lefty sites like Kos and Atrios have been trying to deny the whole RatherGate thing by claiming that perhaps there was some typewriter version of Times Roman, used with a proportional typewriter, etc.
Today, the Washington Post says:
Thomas Phinney, program manager for fonts for the Adobe company in Seattle, which helped to develop the modern Times New Roman font, disputed Glennon’s statement to CBS. He said “fairly extensive testing” had convinced him that the fonts and formatting used in the CBS documents could not have been produced by the most sophisticated IBM typewriters in use in 1972, including the Selectric and the Executive. He said the two systems used fonts of different widths.
Ok, the guys who invented the font now say it didn’t exist in 1972.
In a word, duh. It was always so blindingly obvious that these were fakes. Not even good fakes either. Really bad ones.
Think Atrios and Kos will give up yet? I bet not. :-)
that Dan Rather has never even used Microsoft Word. I'm sure it seems incredible to the bloggers, but lots of executives of his age haven't even used email.
Sure, the younger staffers would have, and they're probably all snickering to themselves at CBS. I bet Rather has his secretary print out his emails, he scribbles on them, and she sends the responses.
In one form or another.
I realized today that I've been blogging since I was in High School.
That's a bit of a stretch, but I realized that I had:
Except for that long dry spell after College, I've been blogging for 20 years now. Blogging is somewhat natural, because I've always been opinionated, and I've always written about it. What blogging does for me is bridge the gulf been writing, and access to readership.
I remember seeing Bill Gates on the David Letterman show quite a few years ago. David asked him about "this Internet thing". Bill made some comment about how you could listen to music from over the Internet. David mocked him saying "isn't that called the radio". Bill Gates just shut up then.
Neither Bill Gates nor David Letterman got the Internet. The point of the Internet is that you can own your own radio station. Freedom of the press only helps those who own one, and thanks to blogging, we all own our own press.
As we say in Arizona, YEE HA!
Sigh.
Stupid religious war on Slashdot today about which OS is better.
Look, people are different. Most people are primarily verbal or primarily visual.
They will be more productive in an operating system that caters to that. A verbal person will prefer a command line, a visual person a well done GUI.
Mac OS X is visual/kinesthetic.
Linux tends to be pure verbal.
Windows is a bastard verbal GUI. (more on that later)
So if you’re an artist, you’ll find Mac OS X to be easier to use and you’ll produce better work then you would on another operating system because the OS will synchronize with your cognitive mode.
If you’re a lawyer, you might well be happier on Linux. If you ask a lawyer, they’ll tell you they were happiest on Word Perfect 5.4 under MS-DOS.
No one can be productive on Windows, because Windows manages to be a verbal focused GUI. Under Windows, its all all about choosing verbs and nouns using a GUI, vs. Mac OS X which is more about the visual manipulation of objects. So there is no cognitive mode were Windows is really usable… Even worse for a visual person, the color scheme is like being screamed at all day. For most artists, using Windows is the death of a thousand stings. More subtly, art done under Windows is usually inferior to art done on Mac OS X, because Mac OS X is easiest to use in a visual cognitive mode. Windows, by forcing a shift to the verbal mode, hobbles the artist.
As an experiment, ask yourself this:
If you are drawing, do you use more or less keyboard commands? If you are writing, do you use more or less keyboard commands? If you are programming, do you use more or less keyboard commands? If you are designing programs, do you use more or less keyboard commands?
What you’ll find is that depending on the primary cognitive mode of the task you’re currently doing, you use the computer in different ways.
This is why all OS religious wars are stupid. Different people have different preferences depending on their particular cognitive preference.
Except for trashing Windows, because it sucks because it requires mutually exclusive cognitive modes. That’s ok. :-)
Computers are never more annoying then when they’re trying to be helpful.
About two months ago, I started using this program called Sp@mX. Basically, you feed it a set of spam and it munges through it for you and sends emails to the appropriate people complaining about the spam.
This has two effects: Spammers remove you from their lists, so you get less spam, and ISPs shut down spam accounts, which also helps you get less spam.
It took awhile (I’ve reported 4427 spam emails so far), but it cut my spam down from 150/day down to 33/day, and its been steadily dropping.
But its been quite interesting looking at the interaction between myself, ISPs, and the author of the program. I’ve come to the conclusion that ISPs are at least half the problem when it comes to spam. They’re arrogant, whiny, and quite bitchy when it comes to dealing with abuse messages from end users.
First off, realize that Sp@mX is not perfect. Jeff Hendrickson, the author of the program has been reasonably responsive, but he’s not the world’s best programmer. He’s had bugs, and he’s had to learn about spam reporting as he went, so early versions of Sp@mX would sometimes send messages to the wrong ISPs based on forged headers. Since almost all spam have forged headers, that means that with early versions of the program, ISPs could get deluged with messages that had nothing to do with them.
However, that doesn’t excuse their rudeness back to either myself as an end user, or Jeff. Jeff developed a tool for end users to report spam, and it works pretty well from the end users perspective. Jeff now checks before sending an email to a spamming ISP to see if they’ve been blacklisted somewhere, and the reality is that its quite possible for an ISP to show up briefly, yet innocently on a blacklist.
Does Sp@mX work perfectly from the ISPs perspective? No, not every message send from Sp@mX is guaranteed to be a problem for that ISP. But you know what? Suck it up guys! Expecting end users to spend 1 hour per spam to figure out exactly where/when a spam came from so that they can give you a report is just stupid. Instead, tools like Sp@mX are needed. Will those tools have problems? Yes.
After conversing with a number of ISPs on this issue, including a friend of mine, I have come to the conclusion that the true cause of spam is ISP laziness more then anything else. The real reason spam exists is because ISPs have been too lazy to really develop open source tools of their own for dealing with spam at their level, nor have they pushed on the IETF to modify the mail protocols to make header spoofing more difficult. Nor for that matter have they come up with a standardized format for reporting spam that would make writing automated tools simpler.
Cowboy up, guys.
So I'm a hard core Mac guy.
Apple's announcement that they're switching to Intel can only mean one thing: IBM totally screwed the pooch, forcing them to Intel. For all the claim that Apple is only 3% of their PowerPC business, IBM is talking through their hat: if Apple is only 3%, how come they were unable to make enough chips for them?
However, here's a prediction you won't see anywhere else:
I expect the high-end machines of 2006 and 2007 will be Pentiums, but dual-core, dual-processor machines. I suspect that was why Apple had to switch to Intel is because IBM had no plan to make dual-core versions of the PowerPC. I also predict a rocky year for Apple's computer sales.
Apple will still be able to compete against Windows, because Longhorn is going to suck on multiple-core machines. By that time Leopard is going to rock on “four-processor” machines because Apple will be able to build on all the improvements already in Tiger. Microsoft on the other hand, will still be patching an outdated, outmoded operating system. Technologies like CoreImage and CoreAudio are going to continue to leverage all that latent power in the video card.
So the Supreme Court ruled that Grokster could be sued. Whether they'll win or lose in court is another issue.
Personally, I think this will be good for file sharing in the long term. In all the history of this sort of thing, its become immediately obvious that people actually want to be legal.
Despite the ability to copy tapes most people buy so overall, VCRs generate millions for the Studios every year.
iTunes is now a huge percentage of the online music both free and paid.
When they started encrypting satellite broadcasts, sales of big satellite dishes actually exploded, because you could now watch legally.
I was going to write this up as a business plan someday and try to get VC money, but here goes, this is how you completely change the music, movie and TV business for the better:
Start by adding some digital rights information to existing files, and build into the playback software someplace you can easily license the file. Now, and here's the kicker, kick back some percentage of the revenue ($.02 as an example) to the source of the file.
Think podcasts are big? What if you could extract all the digital rights info from a podcast and buy the song right then? Or buy a song right off of one of the satellite radios? Or listen to a song/album review and then buy the song? For podcasts it would be really easy, just make a rule that if more then 50% of the content is something other then the current file that you can listen to that portion of the content for free. So for a podcast with 3 songs plus commentary, each song would be 33% or less of the total size, enabling free play.
You've now leveraged all the people who are willing to share their music as salesmen, and compensated them in some small way. So by doing that, you can now lower prices, because at that point, the digital right you're selling is pure profit.
So if all the file sharing networks moved to this model, I think they would explode as people would feel OK both about sharing, and they would be compensated for it.
So the webmaster for the 2004 Bush Campaign reviews the Democratic National Committee's website here.
Hisssss... Phfft... Yowl....
It's a catfight!
The recent elections in Iran, the bungled election in Washington State, plus my own research into paperless vs. “paper trail” balloting has gotten me thinking.
Is is possible to build an election system where it would be impossible to cheat?
I don't know if this is true but I do think that Apple has one of the best thought out product lines they've ever had.
I wrote before about how paper trails in voting were a bad idea.
If you don't understand the problem, having paper isn't going to help.
An article ragging on the Dell competitor to the Shuffle, which looks even more lame now that the iPod Nano is out. Read it here
Technorati Tags: ipod
Even you granola types should like this
A friend of mine gave me this tip: He always downloads the combo installers for Mac OS X rather then use System Update. He claims that the big installers update a little more than the incremental and they tend to fix any outstanding errors in his system.
It helped fix a machine I had that wasn't bringing up the login screen, so I think I'll be doing that as well from now on.
Technorati Tags: MacOSX
So today, Google announced that they’re buying YouTube which was big news.
Target threatened the movie studios about iTunes pricing vs. DVD sales.
Last week there was “Anti-DRM” day which was no news. As my roommate put it, DRM is what white buys who don’t have real problems complain about.
Tower Records gave up.
Meanwhile, I spent Thursday through Sunday talking to software publishers.
Here’s what I found out.
Currently, when I buy software the process is something like this.
In other words, the box of software I got contains nothing of value.
Of course, this has been painfully obvious for awhile.
The thing is, the software industry has clutched onto this model of shipping boxes for years.
But software isn’t really a tangible good. When you buy software, you’re really negotiating with the software publisher for permission to use their ideas. It’s not a good, its a contract between you and the software publisher. The free software zealots talk about information being “free”. They’re not getting it. Sure, the bits on your hard disk are information, but the permission to use them has been granted to you by the software publisher in exchange for money.
That’s a fundamental principle of capitalism, you give people money, they give you something. So far so good. Where this has broken down is that the software model was more complicated then that. The software publishers wanted the process to be something like this:
The first two steps are capitalism, but that last step is just naive. It’s never worked, even before BitTorrent. So its going away. It’s just taken the software publishers a long time to let go.
My Nephew has never been in a record store. He downloads music onto his iPod from iTunes, and sees no reason to go to a Record Store. The same thing is going to happen to software. However, I don’t see this as the death of software retail, I see that two things are going to happen.
Half the people who sell software are going to stop or go out of business. Just like how small booksellers got driven out of business by Barnes & Noble, and iTunes killed Tower Records. If you want to hire a bunch of teenagers who don’t know anything to shove boxes, your business is going to die.
Really, why should I buy TurboTax from Staples when I can buy it from WalMart if they both have idiot salespeople? But if Staples had classes on how to use QuickBooks…
Barnes & Noble crushed the small bookseller because lets be honest here. The big giant corporation was less greedy then the small store. When I go to Barnes & Noble, its an event for me. I wander the whole store of 100,000 books, read some of them in the store, drink coffee, leaf through magazines, and walk out with $150 in books. Barnes & Noble understood that the best way to sells books was to put chairs in a bookstore.
Every time I’ve gone in an Apple store, its been packed with people. Happy people, talking to salemen who know their shit. Meanwhile, Apple is running free classes to teach people how to use their computers.
Apple has been opening a new store every 9 days. They’re one of the fastest growing retailers in America, because they are actually selling computers the way Barnes and Noble sells books.
That’s going to happen in software sales as well. The retail software stores that remain are going to throw out all the shelves of boxes of software, and replace them with computers with the software already installed so people can try it out. They’ll have something like 1500 titles available on each machine. If you want to buy the software, they’ll print you out a license code and sell you a better written manual then what the software publisher provides. Don’t think its going to happen?
It’s already been happening in the Mac market for awhile. Half the software I own, I downloaded a trial over the internet, and paid for a license code. Every mac has a menu item, #3 under the Apple menu that links to downloadable software provided by Apple. When I bought iWork, basically the only thing that was in the box was a DVD and the license code. In fact, QuickTime Pro is basically only a license code.
Want Dreamweaver 8? You can download it directly from Adobe. Sure they sell boxes, but they see how things are going. Pretty much their entire catalog is available as a download.
The thing that is missing in all this is either DRM, or bad DRM. I’m sort of an optimist when it comes to people. I think that if you explicitly made people promise not to share software, they wouldn’t. But the software industry doesn’t do that. They pretend to have this model of selling a box of bits. Well, that makes people think that if they copy the bits they haven’t done anything wrong. Since the publishers didn’t explicitly extract the promise from them not to copy its not clear that they’re wrong either.
So enter some sort of Digital Rights Management. Adobe now requires you to activate your software before using it, which basically locks it to the computer.
This blows. Almost everyone these days ends up with a home computer and a work computer. Power users have a desktop, a notebook and a home computer. So Adobe ends up allowing you to lock it to two computers. If you get a new computer, you have to “de-authorize” one of the computers. If you don’t have access to the computer, you have to call tech support, which just cost Adobe $20 whether they give you access or not.
Microsoft does the same thing. As does Palm Source and numerous other software companies.
So basically, the #1 (Microsoft) and #2 (Adobe) software companies in the world have embraced DRM. Except it turns out that they’re both a bit behind the times with their DRM solution. Pro Audio figured out this problem a long time ago. It’s called the iLok:

Disclaimer: I work for PACE the maker of the iLok.
You’re thinking “A dongle?” Dongle’s suck, who want’s to have to carry around something to plug into their computer to authorize their software.
Let me tell you: I do. I don’t know what your experience has been with dongles, but I suspect that they were pre-USB 1st generation dongles.
The iLok is a second generation, which means that:
What this means is that the iLok get’s in your way the least of all of the other software DRM solutions. In Pro Audio, its common to have a work computer, a notebook, a home computer, a studio computer, and to upgrade them all every 4 months. With iLok, they unplug from one computer and plug into the other. The iLok, with their $50,000 worth of software licenses can travel with them as needed. So yeah, you have to carry a dongle around, but it gets in they way of your work the minimum possible.
It goes beyond that though. The real key to iLok though is ilok.com. iLok.com lets you move your software licenses between your own iLoks, and even transfer licenses to other users. It lets you as an end user manage your software licenses.
For software publishers, they can use iLok.com to deliver licenses directly to users. They also can use iLok.com to mix/match their products to produce bundles, provide discounts for software upgrades that enforce surrendering the previous product. (It’s currently a big headache for software publishers if people sell their old “box” software on eBay; people buy it, then want a discount for upgrading it…)
In short, iLok enforces the contract between the publisher and the end user in the least intrusive way.
Pro Audio is a tiny portion of the software industry. Yet the portions of that industry that use iLok are the healthiest. There are basically two types of companies in Pro Audio these days: Companies that are going out of business (unless they have a rich corporate sugar daddy) or companies that use iLok.
So those companies are doing better, because of the iLok. And because the software industry in Pro Audio is healthy, customers do better because they have more choices, more software, and higher quality software. Software in Pro Audio has even gotten cheaper, because there is less theft.
Yet it goes beyond that. Because the software companies can trust their users, its become common for them to give their best customers a break. The more of a companies products you own, the bigger discounts they give you on upgrades. When bad things happen, they’re more willing to give you a break.
If they even need to. One of our customers at PACE had a fire. He sent his half-melted iLok in to us, and we were able to verify his licenses and send him a new iLok with all of his software intact. If his $50,000 worth of software had been in ‘boxes’ he would have been screwed.
My only complaint about the iLok is that more software doesn’t use it. I have 50 emails saved with serial numbers for software I’ve purchased. Every time I get a new computer, I spend the first 2 weeks typing in new serial numbers.
It blows. I’d rather embrace good DRM like iLok then bad DRM like most companies cheesy serial number scheme.
The other day, I bought CoverScout from Equinix software. Except their sucky DRM ties me to my notebook, because its a MAC locked serial number.
Does Equinix really think they’re going to make money off their $19.99 program when I have to email their support the next time I get a computer in order to change serial numbers? Meanwhile, I can’t use their program at work.
So long live DRM. But bad DRM? Let’s hope that dies a quick death. Because the future of software/music/movie distribution is clear.
You’ll be downloading.
I’m in serious iPhone lust. As a web application developer, I constantly get pages from the website when there’s a problem, which I then can’t do anything about. With iPhone, I can get a page for a problem, and then fix the problem, from the phone.
So work will probably end up paying for these for my staff…
Meanwhile, [OmniFocus] looks, well lame. So I’m going have to get back up to coding speed on Frictionless and get a functional spec for the next version written and finished. That will help others collaborate with me.
An of course, iPhone + Frictionless will just rock. I promise.
I get 125+ spam messages a/day. Most of them get filtered by SpamSieve on the client side.
In theory, my hosting provider uses Spam Assassin, but dialed down so high its been mostly pointless.
Meanwhile at work, we had no spam filtering at all, other then this TDMA challenge response system that I immediately disabled.
So when I looked into spam solutions for work I was intrigued by spamstopshere for my own use. It has the reputation for being the most accurate, and additionally, you can actually tell how much it will cost you by browsing their website, something that isn’t true for BrightMail or Postini.
Server-side spam filtering is far superior to the client-side spam filtering I was using previously, SpamSieve. The server do a lot of things to make sure that its really talking to a real mail server and not a spam blaster. That can help you filter out 75-80% of the spam immediately, with _zero false positives. Additionally, with client-side filtering when you have spam that are really obviously spam you still have to review them. With so much volume, you eventually stop bothering, which means any false positive is a bigger deal. If the server can dump all the obvious crap up front, then you only have to review 1-2 “possibles”/day, which I can easily deal with. 125/day was too much though, so I wouldn’t do it and soon I would have 2000 spam messages to review. I’d try to review them, but I’d get frustrated and give up…
Note that I don’t really consider Spam Assassin “server-side” filtering, because it filters the Spam AFTER the mail server has accepted the spam, which means its missing the filtering you can get practically for free.
So a spam filtering service was the way to go. And SpamStopsHere looked the the best of them.
The road wasn’t perfectly smooth however.
Assuming they live within a reasonable distance of an Apple store.
Here’s a Fortune Article talking about how great the retail experience is an Apple Store.
But I’m going to talk up one thing in particular I’ve noticed.
I’m a computer guy. So people who aren’t yet computer literate are always talking to me about how they would like to learn, but…
What I now tell them to do is go to their local Apple store. Once a week, the Apple Store has a class on getting started. Its free, they don’t have to buy anything, and they can come back EVERY week until they’re ready to buy a computer.
After they buy a computer, they can pay an additional $100/year for “Pro Care”, which means that they can make an appointment, and someone will sit down with them and go over any problems they’re having.
Can you think of any other company that does this for ANY product?
Apple seems to be the only company in America that actually supports it products these days…
Is your mac acting flaky?
9 times out of 10, I’ve been able to cure flaky macs by using the Combo installer to update why Mac. This is because of two reasons:
Using the Combo installer essentially refreshes everything in your operating system that’s changed since the .0 release. So anything that’s gotten corrupted is suddenly brand spankin’ new!
While developers get seeds of the .x releases, those are only delivered as Combo updates. There’s no way for them to test the Software Update delivery method, so basically, any compatibility problem between the Software Update version and any 3rd party software you have the won’t show up until after the official release. This happened to us at work today. Our software works fine with the Combo update, but not with the Software Update release.
So if you’re going to update to 10.4.9 today, grab the combo version instead.
Intel 310MB
PPC 167MB
You’ll be glad you did.
Thanks to Rohan, who gave me this tip about 2 years ago. It’s made my life much easier ever since.
Iraq meets Steve Jobs
That's pretty much my entire blog.
Friggin' Hilarious
It wasn’t the iPhone that made them late.
It was because they didn’t hire me when they had the chance last year. I did what I was supposed to do. I sent my resume into jobs.apple.com, I contacted friends who worked there, everything. One nibble, no offer.
I mean, sure, I wasn’t willing to move to the SF Bay Area. But really, you’d have to be a complete idiot to move there. It’s ridiculously expensive, and in this internet age, why work in an area where a “starter home” is $1,000,000? Meanwhile, in my home office, I have my own personal espresso machine.
Mark my words, if Apple had hired me, Leopard would have shipped in February.
I’m that good. Or maybe its just the caffeine.
Either way, your loss guys. My new job is working out just fine, thanks.
Well, I got Frictionless 2.0 (My GTD app for the mac) done enough to be useable.
So I released it out into the world today.
You can read about it here
I’m pretty happy with the new UI design although I’m not finished. It still has some rough edges compared to some of the other GTD apps out there, but I think its more useable on the day to day basis then any of those other GTD apps out there.
NSTreeController still sucks eggs though.
I’ve been having to run Windows lately.
It just, well, sucks. I can run it on my Mac Pro via Parallels mixed in with everything else. But since I’m always booting Windows purely to fix bugs, it makes me hate it even more because I associate it with nasty things…
Just hearing the Windows boot sound now makes my back hurt.
So clearly, rebooting into Windows to play [Supreme Commander](http://www.supremecommander.com) should become a necessary part of my work day. Its the only way I can make sure that Windows users don’t get short changed. Yeah, thats the ticket.
I just ordered one of the new .33“ thick Apple keyboards.
I’m hoping I catch ditch all those stupid wrist rests I have all over my desk!
An NBC Universal spokesman has been quoted by the New York Times as claiming that the iTunes Store's raison d'etre “ is designed to drive sales of Apple devices at the expense of those who create the content that make these devices worth buying.”
I just realized. Apple is operating on the reverse of the Gillette model.
The Gillette model is to sell you the razor cheap, but force you to buy expensive razor blades.
It's been copied by:
Apple's using the reverse model: Content is cheap, the player is expensive. I'm calling it the Rozar model.
Which makes sense to me, I use the iTunes store a lot. I've purchased 1618 items from the iTunes store.
But I have 14,000 items in my iTunes library so 90% of my content was purchased on CDs. For a Razor model to work, 90% of my content would have have to come from iTMS not 10%.
So selling the content online doesn't make any sense as a business model. Not only that, but since Apple doesn't try to make huge profits on the iTMS, that means you're competing with someone who doesn't care about profits. So your profits are going to be miniscule.
NBC is run by idiots. The only way to fight Apple's Rozar model would be with a Razor model: $99 player, $4.99 shows. I could see that working, but in that case, NBC wouldn't be making any extra money because the extra cost would have to go to subsidize the player. So NBC is actually better off with the Rozar model.
So if I can’t have a dev kit for the iPhone because of “cellphone network security”, what’s your excuse for the iPod Touch which doesn’t have a cell phone?
Though I expect some sort of announcement in the Leopard timeframe.
Oh, and by the way, Palm better pull their head out of their ass. (Sorry, other Steve I know who works for Palm.)
My wife wants an iPhone now.
Why?
She wants to be able to add phone numbers to her phone without waiting for her nephew to visit.
Literally. Despite having a computer geek for a husband, her solution to putting contact numbers in her phone is to hand her nephew her rolodex and her phone and make him do it.
The price cut didn't help either, she was willing to wait when it was $600, but now that its $400, it seems more feasible.
Then a friend of mine told her I was getting a $100 rebate. Which isn't quite true, work is getting a $100 rebate, since they were the ones that paid for my iPhone.
So as long as I’ve had DSL, calling my 2nd phone line has caused my Internet to die for about 30 seconds.
Turns out the stupid cheap-ass phone company filters are only on line 1, and my DSL is on line 2. Even worse, they don’t even give the
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