From the WSJ:
Just weeks ago the fragile commodities markets could be sparked ahead by a mere hint of bad news. That market psychology has reversed, with Monday's action showing that even war can't halt oil's current retreat.
Inside the commodity-trading pits and brokerage houses, the conversation isn't whether prices are pulling back in the near term, but how far and for how long.
That was made clear as markets digested increasingly violent images of conflict between Russia and the oil crossroads of Georgia. Oil prices fell to as low as $112.72 a barrel before settling at $114.45 a barrel, down 75 cents,
oil is related to the dollar, which has been rising in recent days for no known reason except for Fed/ PPR intervention.
Essentially you are saying “the dollar is going to continue to rise” even though there is no reason or evidence to believe this is the case.
then again maybe oil will continue to fall in a deflationary spiral, which wont matter anyway at that point.