Murdoc also read the tea leaves, and he made a good point on the 92,000 number.
No Marines.
However, I think he's missing that some of the Marines currently in Iraq were already part of OIF-4, so they'll be staying. But he's right it that we shouldn't take that number too seriously folks. Without the complete rotation plan, we won't really know. Besides no plan survives...
I still think:
- Drawdown in January after the elections as a side effect of the existing rotation plan.
- Drawdown somewhere between August and November. Murtha may be right, because I know for a fact that we've planned the war to coincide with US Political Timetables. In fact, I said so on November 3rd, long before the Pentagon announcement.
Hat Tip: Defense Tech who was one of the first people to link to my original piece about troop reductions.
Yes, you’re right that I missed the fact that some Marines in Iraq now are OIF-4. Good point.
FWIW, I hope that the situation is such that we really can start drawing down in a significant way.
I think we’re doing the right thing, I think we’re on the right track, and I think we’re winning. That being said, while I expect numbers to come down some, I’m skeptical that they’re going to be as low as a lot of folks are suddenly claiming.
Good work here. Like the name too!
The Opinionator