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March 14, 2006

Brookings Update

My last update missed an important point, which a commenter pointed out: Iraq Body Count hadn't updated their civilian deaths since the shrine bombing when I did my monthly analysis of the Brookings Iraq Index report.

Unlike the media, I like it when people fact check me. It means I learn something.

I had to wait for an update to the Brookings report, so I have new numbers for the civilian deaths in February, some new graphs about troop levels, and a new conclusion.

First off, we continue to pull troops out of Iraq:

200603140727

While the Iraqi troops keep increasing:

200603140728

Here's the meat though:

200603140728-1

So is Iraq having a civil war? Maybe. Things aren't that much worse then November, even with the new numbers. However, I don't like the trend, but if I pull up the big chart from the Brookings report:

Picture 2

February has by no means been the worst month for the civilians in Iraq. If anything, the “civil war” meme is a matter of perception. Our hope was that things would become more stable after elections and with more Iraqi troops.

To a some extent things have gotten better. Both the numbers for US troops killed and wounded and Iraqi policed killed have been going down. (See previous report) Yet the violence against those least able to fight against it has been going up.

In essence, February was two steps forward, one step back.

Ultimately then, whether Iraq will degenerate into civil war is up to the Iraqis themselves. If they want to have a civil war, nothing we can do will stop them. If they decide not to, they won't.

Which makes this month critical. The Iraqis need a unity government that can speak for all of the people.

Let's hope they get one.

Posted by the at March 14, 2006 8:08 AM

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Comments

Dear Opinionated Bastard,

This all seems to boil down to the fact Iraq is one hell of a mess. Oh yeah, we just sent in 700 more troops too. I’ll tell ya, the current leadership really got us in a bind. Do we “stay the course” or take off? Slowly draw down troops or move them to the border of Iran? I still can’t understand the reasoning of the people who support this war and particularly the men and women in the White House who have perpetrated it.

Sincerely, Eric Tsetsi

Posted by: Eric Tsetsi at March 18, 2006 3:50 PM

Personally, my reasoning is that the war was a roll of the dice, and I have more respect for people who take risks them people who complain about how hard things are.

Posted by: Opinionated Bastard [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 19, 2006 5:43 PM