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November 21, 2005

Good followup

Murdoc also read the tea leaves, and he made a good point on the 92,000 number.

No Marines.

However, I think he's missing that some of the Marines currently in Iraq were already part of OIF-4, so they'll be staying. But he's right it that we shouldn't take that number too seriously folks. Without the complete rotation plan, we won't really know. Besides no plan survives...

I still think:

  • Drawdown in January after the elections as a side effect of the existing rotation plan.
  • Drawdown somewhere between August and November. Murtha may be right, because I know for a fact that we've planned the war to coincide with US Political Timetables. In fact, I said so on November 3rd, long before the Pentagon announcement.

Hat Tip: Defense Tech who was one of the first people to link to my original piece about troop reductions.

Posted by the at November 21, 2005 9:08 AM

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Comments

Yes, you’re right that I missed the fact that some Marines in Iraq now are OIF-4. Good point.

FWIW, I hope that the situation is such that we really can start drawing down in a significant way.

I think we’re doing the right thing, I think we’re on the right track, and I think we’re winning. That being said, while I expect numbers to come down some, I’m skeptical that they’re going to be as low as a lot of folks are suddenly claiming.

Posted by: Murdoc at November 21, 2005 11:28 AM

Good work here. Like the name too!

The Opinionator

Posted by: The Opinionator at November 21, 2005 6:37 PM