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August 5, 2005
Going Beyond Brookings
So I've been discouraged the last couple of days because while July was a low month for soldier deaths, August has been a terrible month so far.
So I decided to dig in and see how those deaths were adding up. How many come from defensive operations as opposed to offensive operations, and how many are IEDs vs. direct attacks?
That meant reading through all the press releases for the last 99 days. You're welcome to check my math. Here's what I found:

Most deaths come from the soldiers being hit by an IED during combat operations. That is, driving to or from combat, or doing patrols in a combat area. This sort of shows that any whining that our soldiers are hiding inside the green zone is a lie (As I've seen from a commenter here and there). Most of the deaths are from combat operations.
Looking at the last few months then, the casualties get a little more perspective:

So I didn't know this until I read the press release, but the 14 soldiers killed on August 3rd were in combat. So this puts both July and the other months in perspective.
The lower number of deaths in Iraq in July happened because there weren't any major combat operations in July. With the beginning of August, Centcom has commenced a major operation, so combat deaths have risen accordingly. You can see it on this chart that shows deaths day by day with a weekly trend line. The trendline has bumps about a week after a major operation begins; you can see the lull at the beginning of June before the next operation begins. So the fact that fewer soldiers were killed in July has a lot to do with the fact that CentCom didn't do any major operations in July.

Other things I've learned:
The Marines are bearing the brunt of the combat operations and casualties. If you see a combat death, its most often a 2nd Expeditionary Force Marine. Semper Fi guys, thank you especially for serving.
Posted by the at August 5, 2005 4:39 PM
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Comments
Well done, thanks
Posted by: John Anderson at August 6, 2005 5:07 PM
kids who would once join the marines are now joining us. who you yuppies gonna hire for the spoils of imperialism when we are protesting your fake wars and bad ideas? all the paste eater computer nerds are gonna fight in the trenches? haha, ya right.
semper fi, screw the corporate christians.
ernie
Posted by: ernie at August 8, 2005 2:33 PM
Typical, ernie, you got your facts twisted.
Army recruiting was down, yes, though retention was up. (Most soldiers who serve in Iraq re-enlist.)
Marine recruiting is fine.
The rest is just weird-ass ernie ranting. What the hell is a “fake” war?
Oh, and “Semper Fidelis” means “Always faithful”. Go read your last sentence now…
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